Recessionary Times Create Overlooked Financial Opportunities for Investors

Newsletter of the week 18 November - 25 November. This week’s newsletter covers the week to come, the upcoming uranium boom, S&P500 price, Bitcoin price action, and the US30 / DJIA price action.
by Yoaquim Boom
November 30, 2022

In this week’s report

  • Outlook for the coming week.
  • The best feasible market opportunity to arise year-to-date. Uranium.
  • US30 price analysis.
  • S&P 500 price analysis
  • BTC price analysis.

What to Expect in the Stock Market this Week

In the last few weeks, we have seen a great rally across markets.

Except for the major cryptocurrency crash due to the FTX situation most markets have seen an extensive rally.

With positive numbers coming out for numerous economic indicators including CPI, PPI, and the US Unemployment rate investors have regained a positive outlook for the past Throughout October and November.

For the past few weeks little to no high-impact economic indicators have been published, with December coming up, and many more economic data is on the brink of being released.

With this in mind, if the Fed decides to continue hiking rates, which certainly seems like the proper maneuver in the current economic state, we can see much volatility and a pullback of the recent rally.

The current US30 / Dow Jones Industrial Average rally has put in 40-year records for the fastest and highest rally in over 40 years. A pullback seems necessary.


Despite the necessity of a pullback, if the Fed releases more positive economic data a continuation of the rally would be the likely result.

The economic data remains central to the direction of the market.


High-Impact Upcoming Economic Data Includes:

  • US PCE Index, Dec 1.
  • US Unemployment Rate, Dec 2.
  • US Core PPI, Dec 9.
  • US CPI, Dec 13.
  • US FOMC Economic Projections, Dec 14.
  • US Federal Funds Rate, Dec 14.


Uranium Stock Analysis

Uranium. Nuclear Reactors.

Too many, these words ring negative bells.

But to others, these words, and these concepts present a hint at a generational opportunity.

With the events of Fukushima in the late 2000s, there was a massive selloff of all Uranium miners and Uranium stocks.

A common misconception is that Nuclear reactors are harmful, they are in fact one of the cleanest forms of energy supply we currently have in the world.

The misconception is largely due to the conflation of nuclear weapons and nuclear power, and nuclear fission energy supplication.

Those same events led to the dismantling of many Nuclear Reactors around the globe, some of which have only been shut off in the last year.

For example, nuclear power in Germany accounted for a large part of the German electricity supply in 2021, generated by six power plants.


Three of these powerplants were switched off at the end of 2021.

The other three are due to cease operation at the end of 2022 according to the complete nuclear phase-out plan of 2011.

This 'nuclear phase-out plan' is dangerously harmful to global society.

Why?

Germany discontinued has endeavored to discontinue all its nuclear power plants due to the "harmful effects" of nuclear energy generation and has since become completely dependent on Russian gas and oil, making Germany and many more European countries evermore vulnerable to scenarios such as we currently find ourselves in.

The 'nuclear phase-out plan' was criticized by many politicians who attempted to continue to explore nuclear power plants and their global potential.

Those same politicians criticized the dangers of dismantling those nuclear power plants and making those European countries dependent on Russian gas and oil. It was a predictable and obvious conclusion to the 'nuclear phase-out plan.

So what does Uranium have to do with this?

Well, Uranium is central to nuclear fission, which is the reaction in which the nucleus of an atom splits into two or more smaller nuclei.

This is the process that creates energy in nuclear power plants.


Uranium has been having a great comeback for the last three years since the 2000s Fukashima crash. And is forming a great breakout pattern and is for many reasons likely to break out (See Fig. 1).


Especially if countries begin to realize the grave mistake they made by abolishing it globally.

China has plans to build over 50 nuclear power plants in the coming years, with more exact plans to build over 12 nuclear power plants each year.

When all these nuclear power plants running, a lot of uranium will be desired.

China has already cut deals with Cameco Corporation (CCJ), a uranium mining company to buy a vast majority of their Uranium supply for the coming years.

With just China's continued demand in mind, there will be great Uranium demand.



Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice, Just Amalgamated Observations.

Fig. 1 1M CCJ 1996 - 2022 (TradingView)


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US 30 / DJIA Analysis


The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) also known as the US30 has been performing well, in fact, record-breakingly well over the past months.

It seems like due time for a pullback soon. But amidst reportedly well economic data being continuously released a pullback has still not appeared.

The US30's movement seems more than ever dependent on the movements of both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 which have not been as strong as the US30 over the past two months and have yet to put in new highs since their respective August highs.

The US30 has vastly broken out of its year-long channel, and currently sits at the resistance of previous highs, with one more resistance of previous highs above current price action.



TyFig. 2 1D DJIA Jan - Nov (TradingView)



S&P 500 Analysis


The S&P 500, as stated in the US30 analysis, has not performed as well as the US30 and is yet to put in new highs and/or retest the August highs of the market.


These highs also coincide with the upper boudnries of the descending trianlg which the S&P500 has been neatly following for over a year now.


A proper retest of these highs seems like every probable scenario and should be a tale of caution for US30 shorts.


If the S&P500 pushes up for a proper retest of previous highs before pulling back to new lows, we are likely to see a spike on the US30.


Fig. 3 1D S&P500 Jan - Nov (TradingView)



Bitcoin Analysis

After breaking to the downside of a five-month-long channel from June to November Bitcoin has found itself at new lows.



Price action is currently forming a tightening range in formation of a descending triangle, threatening new lows to come soon.


Whether this will be the case or not, is dependent just as the price action of the US30 on the price action of the S&P500 and on the economic data that is set to be released in the first two weeks of December.


The overall overview of the crypto market has been relatively bearish for numerous weeks due to the FTX fiasco and other bankruptcies including crypto and bitcoin lender BlockFI filing for bankruptcy this week.


Fig. 4 1D Bitcoin Jan - Nov (TradingView)



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